Inverted yield curve

Inverted yield curve => Recession => Major stock market crash

An inverted yield curve is an interest rate environment in which long-term debt instruments have a lower yield than short-term debt instruments of the same credit quality. This type of yield curve is considered to be a predictor of economic recession.

Currently we are almost facing an inverted yield yield.

Historically, inversions of the yield curve have preceded many of the U.S. recessions. Due to this historical correlation, the yield curve is often seen as an accurate forecast of the turning points of the business cycle.

Good examples are when the U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted in 2000 & 2008 just before the U.S. equity markets collapsed.

Of course nobody knows when a major market crash will happen. But we are preparing for our clients' portfolio now.


Comments

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